From the empirical offspring distribution and fitted negative binomial distribution shown in Figure 2B, we estimated an observed reproductive number (R) of 0.58 (95% CI: 0.45 - 0.71) and dispersion parameter (k) of 0.45 (95% CI: 0.31 - 0.76).
を使って乱数発生させてシミュレーションしてみた。
mu=0.58 size=0.45 (prob = size/(size+mu)) Rt=rnbinom(1e5,size=size,mu=mu) # reproductive number hist(Rt,breaks = 'scott',freq=F,ann=F) sim <- function(n=10){ infector=sample(1:n,1) # how many infectors? infectee=sum(sample(Rt,infector)) # how many infectees? if(infectee==n) return(infector) # is the number of infectees n? else return(NA) } s=replicate(1e6,sim()) spreader=s[!is.na(s)] hist(spreader,freq=F,ylab='',axes=F,breaks='scott') ; axis(1) BEST::plotPost(spreader,xlim=c(0,1
