ttp://blogs.reuters.com/james-pethokoukis/2011/08/19/obama-faces-worst-case-2012-scenario/ James Pethokoukis Politics and policy from inside Washington Obama faces worst-case 2012 scenario AUG 18, 2011 21:55 EDT （ロイターブログ）オバマ大統領は2012年に最悪の経済状況の中で再選に望む可能性 James Pethokoukis
On Wednesday, Economic Forecaster-in-Chief Barack Obama said, “I don’t think we’re in danger of another recession.” Shades of John McCain’s “The fundamentals of our economy are strong.” 今週水曜日に、ホワイトハウスのエコノミストは「アメリカ経済が二番目のリセッションに陥る危険はないと 考えている」とのべた。
The megabank now thinks the economy won’t grow much faster over the next 12 months than it did during the first half of this year ? and that’s assuming Europe doesn’t go all pear shaped. It sees GDP growth at just 1.5 percent this year, 1.3 percent next year with unemployment at … 9.5 percent heading into the final days of the election season. “The risks of recession are clearly elevated,” the bank said. しかしアメリカのメガバンクは今後12ヶ月のアメリカ経済の成長は今年の前半より減速すると予測していて、今年 のGDP成長は1.5%、来年は1.3%、失業率は来年秋に9,5%とみている。そして「2番目のリセッションに陥る可能性は 明らかに高くなっている」という。
Team Obama had better permanently shelve any plans of running a “Morning in America” campaign. In fact, if a) the economic forecasts of Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs are accurate, and b) voters behave as they usually do during bad economic times, then c) Barack Obama will be a one-term president. No president in the modern era has been reelected with the unemployment rate higher than 7.4 percent, much less two percentage points higher. (a)モーガンスタンレー、JPモルガン、ゴールドマンサックスらの予測が正しいなら、そして(b)有権者が通常の 不景気の時と同じような投票行動をするなら、その場合は(c)オバマ大統領の再選は失敗して一期限りの大統領に 終わる。近代のアメリカ政治史で失業率が7.4%以上の場合に現職大統領の再選された例はない。いわんや9%を超え る場合をや。
But Obama’s political folks are clever, far more than the guys who ran Jimmy Carter’s horrific 1980 campaign. And maybe the Republicans will nominate a candidate that scares Midwest suburbanites silly. Or perhaps Obama’s plan for “winning the future” will imbue the gloomy American public with a a bit more hope that whatever Republicans offer. Perhaps. But if Obama wins four more years with this economy, it will be almost as historic as his win in 2008. それでもオバマの政治チームはジミー・カーターの再選キャンペーン・チームに比べて遥かに賢明であり、もしか すると共和党は中西部の郊外居住層の反発を買うような候補者を立てるかもしれない。或いはまたチーム・オバマ の「未来を勝ち取る」キャンペーン作戦が共和党のキャンペーンより良い希望を与えると有権者を洗脳することが できるかもしれない。そういうことは起こり得るのかもしれない。でも、オバマ大統領が（この悪い）経済の現状 にもかかわらず再選されるのなら、それは2008年と同じように（例外的な）歴史的事件になるのだろう。
ttp://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/bc66b758-ca70-11e0-a0dc-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1VMs9MM92 Bearish hedge funds pile into short positions By Dan McCrum in New York August 19, 2011 6:52 pm ヘッジファンドがショート・ポジションを積み上げている件 By Dan McCrum FT、19日
Hedge funds are increasing bearish bets against the value of equities as the stock market rout deepened this week. Initially caught off guard by the volatility of markets in August, hedge fund investors had sought to reduce risk and hedge existing positions in the early weeks of the month.
But they are now increasing short positions as concerns mount over the strength of global economic recovery. According to the Data Explorers Long Short Ratio for US equities, investors have increased their short positions from May, when the relative amount of shorting was at its lowest level since 2005.
The ratio now stands at 11.71, meaning that investor long positions outnumber the shorts by almost 12 times. The lower the number, the greater the amount of short selling, in effect. The ratio has fallen as investors have increased short positions from the high seen on May 12 when it reached a six-year peak at 13.19 ロング対ショート比率は現在11.71である。これはショート・ポジションの12倍近くのロングポジションがあることを 意味する。ショート（空売り）が増大すれば、この比率は小さくなるわけで、ショート・ポジションの最低であった 5月12日には6年間のピークである13.19をつけていた。
The increase in shorting reflects increased hedging as much as it does a more bearish view on the economy. Several hedge fund managers spoke of being whipsawed by market movements, putting short sales on one day only to see the market rally violently the next, leaving many to head for the sidelines or only trade in highly liquid securities. ショートの増加は市場に対する弱気の見方の反映であると同時にリスクヘッジを意味する。幾つかのヘッジファンドの マネージャーは市場の動きに対応してショートを実施し、次の日には市場のラリーを見て買い戻すといった頻繁な 売買を行っているといわれる。このため多くの投資家はサイドラインに引いているか、流動性の大きな株式でのみ トレードを行っている。
Stephen King, founder and chief investment officer of C12 Capital Management, a hedge fund with $1bn under management, points to the jaggedness of recent moves in the S&P index, one of the most liquid markets in the world.“It portrays a market where both hedge funds and dealers have de-risked as much as possible, with the end result that liquidity is really awful,” he said. “It is not representative of anything behaving well.”
これはカナダのグローブ&メールに掲載された評論で、来年の大統領選挙に向けたオバマと共和党候補について 書いているものなのだけれど、共和党の候補はペリー元テキサス州知事になるだろうという想定の上で語ってい て、ちょっと面白い（スペキュラティブに言いたい放題の）評論。国内メディアには、どう転んでも、こういう 類の半分ジョークで半分シリアスな、政治的なセンスのある書き物、というのが掲載されることはない。ただし この手の痛快な評論というのは、原文で読まないと面白くないという問題（ry （蛇足を書いておくと、グローブ&メールはカナダ最大手の新聞で、基本的に穏健派リベラル傾向） --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/opinions/opinion/its-all-breaking-bad-for-obama/article2135672/ It’s all breaking bad for Obama MARGARET WENTE Saturday, Aug. 20, 2011 2:00AM EDT
Barack Obama should try to enjoy his vacation on Martha’s Vineyard for as long as possible. A swaggering governor from Texas (yes, another one) is about to eat his lunch.
Until this week, next year’s election was still his to lose. The Republicans couldn’t field a decent candidate. Michele Bachmann is too crazy. Sarah Palin has peaked. Mitt Romney, the only one who seems even slightly qualified, is as electrifying as a slab of tofu. Everyone agrees that Mr. Obama is a major disappointment. But at least he’s trying hard, and he’s likeable.
The Perry-Obama race (if it turns out that way) would be a contest between two starkly different visions of how to save America. The Perry vision is to unleash the forces of private enterprise through low taxes, less regulation and dramatically smaller government. “I’ll work every day to try to make Washington, D.C., as inconsequential in your life as I can,” he vows. The Obama vision (which he plans to reveal in September, as soon as his advisers can think one up) probably will involve big-government job-creation schemes dreamed up by a bunch of wise people in Washington.
Mr. Perry “occupies the cultural and intellectually empty heartland of the Republican Party,” wrote Richard Cohen, a liberal pundit, in The Washington Post. “He vows to diminish Washington’s influence ? a conservative applause line but a moronic policy.”
Moronic or not, it’s a message that resonates across America. Most Americans have lost their trust in the folks in Washington. Eighty-five per cent of them think the country is headed in the wrong direction. Seventy-three per cent doubt the government can solve their economic problems ? up from 41 per cent a decade ago. In their view, it’s the folks in Washington (and their reckless buddies on Wall Street) who’ve wrecked the country.
This isn’t just a Tea Party sentiment. It’s the most important theme in American politics today, and it’s a major reason why Mr. Obama got elected in the first place. It’s also the reason why he’s likely to get unelected next time. Americans will keep throwing out incumbents until someone gets it right.
Whatever schemes his technocrats come up with, there’s no chance Mr. Obama will be able to fix the job crisis by election day ? or even put a dent in it.
Barack Obama can’t walk on water. To a large extent, he’s a prisoner of fate. These times need a great man, and he is merely a good one. And now he’s acquired the most devastating label of all: President Wimp ? someone who not only has no answers but lacks the killer instinct to strike back at his opponents. So don’t be surprised to see another Texas cowboy in the White House before long. He’s selling hope. And that’s what people desperately want.
