PKを運とか言ってる奴は大間違い
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650:A 22/12/26 07:19:26.34 okJkpPsH0.net the PK craftsman did not have the skills, then this approximately 3% chance of success would be a 'fluke'. It is not impossible, but it is a very low probability. By me thinking "that's a very low probability, so hypothesis H0 would be wrong", hypothesis H1 would be correct and the PK craftsman's skill would be recognised. But here is where the problem arises. I have taken the liberty of deciding that hypothesis H0 is wrong, but there is a 3.125% probability that it is correct. 651:A 22/12/26 07:25:44.19 okJkpPsH0.net Can I really decide on my own that "the probability of being right is only 3%, so it's wrong!" Can I decide on my own that it is wrong because the probability of being right is only 3%? Of course not. In statistical hypothesis testing, this criterion is named the significance level α and is determined before any calculations are made. Usually, 5% or 1% (α = 0.05 or a = 0.01) is used. In this case, if the significance level is 5%, H0 can be judged to be wrong. However, if the significance level is 1%, H0 cannot be wrong. Do you understand?
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